Continued strong growth in machine-to-machine (M2M) communications markets will see about 95 million cellular M2M modules shipping in 2013, according to the latest ABI Research market study.

Regarding shipments to the three main market segments -- telematics, telemetry, and wireless local loop -- about 34 million devices are expected to be for telematics and 39 million for telemetry.

According to senior analyst Sam Lucero, "Until about 2011, the major market growth will be found in the telemetry segment, since it encompasses a broad range of applications including smart metering, POS terminals, and remote monitoring and control applications."

After 2011, we expect to see a spike in telematics applications. These exist now, but from 2011 will be driven more quickly by mandates such as Europe's eCall initiative, which will see cellular connections in every vehicle, and in North America by a much stronger competitive reaction to OnStar -- virtually of the major automakers will come out with OEM telematics programs.

Commercial telematics also set for strong growth as fleet managers use telematics to reduce fuel costs and increase overall operational efficiency.

Average selling prices are expected to decline across all air interface standards through about 2010, after which they should level out. Will current global financial and economic uncertainties negatively affect this market?

There is no immediate indication of this, although, says Lucero, "A few companies have told ABI Research that the economic uncertainty will have a direct impact; we're in the process of surveying selected industry stakeholders to evaluate whether our forecasts will need to be refined."

However one here-and-now pain point in the market is the ability to develop applications easily and cost-effectively. Module makers such as Wavecom are involved, as are standalone software vendors such as Sensor Logic and equipment players such as Digi International.

It's not clear yet whether application developers will settle on one or another preferred type of ecosystem partner.

While the cellphone industry has generally been unaffected by economic ups and downs, this recession (depression, etc.) may well be very different, according to the latest market assessment by In-Stat.

The current economic slowdown is more widespread and deeper than ever experienced during the history of the cellphone era, and has spread through Europe, Asia, and North America, the high-tech market research firm says.

The industry is currently strong, and this year is turning out to be a relatively good one, but the mobile phone sector will likely have some bumps and turbulence over the next couple of years.

"The economic crisis is still playing out, but all indications are that it will have an effect on the cellphone business worldwide, but mostly on North America and Europe," says Allen Nogee, In-Stat analyst.

In-Stat believes that it will take until 2010 before cellphone sales return to their normal growth levels. Frankly, the current economic repercussions are truly daunting -- think basic food and shelter, for the worlds many poor and disenfranchised people.

The In-Stat research covers the worldwide market for cellular handsets and semiconductors. It provides forecasts for handset and semiconductor shipments, plus revenue by region through 2012. Analysis of market conditions by region is included.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- For the next five years, cellphone semiconductor revenue will only grow at a 3.3 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR).

- Over 1.2 billon cellphones will be shipped this year, but the growth rate is rapidly slowing.

- The cellphone industry will be tested like never before in the next year as it deals with the impact of a poor economy and a lack of new features to promote.

Multimedia Research Group's (MRG) latest IPTV Global Forecast shows that global IPTV subscribers will grow from 20.4 million IPTV subscribers in 2008 to 89.6 million in 2012.

To drive this growth, IPTV Operators worldwide are expected to continue investing in improved Quality-of-Service, ease-of-operation, high-definition (HD) content, exclusive programming and time-shifting as differentiating features.

The MRG market study provides new insight into strategies and services added by IPTV Operators to accelerate growth, and the differences in key markets.

In Europe, for example, steady IPTV subscriber growth continues while more HD channels are being offered to Western and Eastern European subscribers. By 2012, European subscribers will still be slightly ahead of Asia, with Europe maintaining 41.5 percent of the worldwide subscriber market and Asia, 35.8 percent.

Despite economic contraction, consistent growth continues at the three major French IPTV Operators as they compete to bring better quality and unique content to their users -- and as new competition comes online in 2009.

Many European IPTV Operators have increased subscribers by offering differentiating services, exclusive content and interactive features. Likewise in Asia, despite flat growth in Japan, rapid growth is expected in China, Taiwan and Korea.

By 2012 North America will have only about 17 percent share of the total worldwide subscribers, however it will dominate the global market in terms of gross service revenue at about $13 billion, due to higher ARPU.

Together, Verizon and AT&T are projected to have about 3 million subscribers by the end of 2008, and they should continue their rapid growth into 2012. Smaller U.S. and Canadian Operators are following similar strategies.

The report includes the market growth of six CapEx products in four worldwide regions, with details about these twenty-four sectors and the related subscriber and system revenues for 2008 to 2112.

With the global economy showing signs of a deep recession, mobile phone usage will continue to escalate, regardless.

In a recent market study by ABI Research, mobile messaging services revenues are forecast to grow from $151 billion in 2008 to greater than $212 billion globally by 2013. Supply side drivers will be of primary importance for maintaining this level of growth.

ABI's principal analyst Dan Shey said "Mobile messaging ARPUs are 85+ percent of all handset data services revenues regardless of region and will remain so for many years."

As messaging involves all the biggest players in the mobile industry there will be incentives for all mobile messaging suppliers to work cooperatively to serve customers well and propel all parties through these rough economic waters.

The important messaging suppliers include operators, device OEMs, content providers and middleware vendors. But although these suppliers can make the mobile messaging experience as pleasurable as possible, there must also be valid practical reasons for customers to use them and to and consider upgrading to new plans and services.

One of the main reasons: more and more customers see mobile messaging services as a more efficient way to communicate than voice services.

The utility of mobile services will keep them a necessity in tough economic times, particularly since displaced workers need to be mobile to find work.

In its study, ABI examines the messaging market across five common platforms -- SMS, MMS, voicemail, IM, and e-mail/unified messaging. The research details not only the drivers from the consumer and business perspectives, but also the supply-side drivers including those from device vendors, operators and middleware providers.

Forecasts are provided for revenues, ARPUs, customers, penetration and usage for the SMS and MMS services and the e-mail and IM platforms. Distribution by type of delivery and payment method is also provided for each of the five mobile services platforms.

All forecasts are for each of five world regions, North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Rest of World.

Worldwide PC microprocessor shipments in the third calendar quarter of 2008 (3Q08) reached record levels again, according to the latest market study by IDC.

However, the outlook for the processor market in 4Q08 and 2009 is unsure.

Worldwide PC processor unit shipments grew 14.0 percent quarter over quarter (QoQ) and 15.8 percent year over year (YoY); market revenue grew 7.6 percent QoQ and 4.1 percent YoY to $8.3 billion.

Intel's new Atom processor for ultra low-cost mobile PCs made a notable difference in the overall market performance; without Atom, unit shipments grew 8.3 percent QoQ and 8.7 percent YoY.

"Not considering the effects of Atom, the overall market still grew at a decent pace in the third quarter," said Shane Rau, director of research at IDC.

"Intel's and AMD's shipments grew at a rate only slightly slower than typical for a third quarter, and seasonal demand appeared reasonable up until September. By segment, while the mobile processor segment grew aggressively, the server segment was soft."

Due to the market's strong performance through the first three quarters of 2008 and anticipated high volume of Atom processors, IDC has raised its PC processor market unit forecast for this year to 18.0 percent.

However, the worldwide demand environment looks weak, and both Intel and AMD indicated an uncertain outlook for the market. As a result, IDC is conservative about 2009 and will be lowering its upcoming unit forecast for the year.

Revenues from mobile phone sales are expected to grow at 6.8 percent CAGR between 2007 and 2013, and should exceed $200 billion by the end of 2013, according to the latest study by Informa Telecoms & Media.

Emerging markets, including Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) and Africa, will make up the majority global handset market value, with 60 percent share in 2013. Growth disparities between developed and emerging markets will become apparent within the next five years.

Growth will not exceed 2 percent CAGR in developed markets according to the report, handset market value growth rates are slowing significantly in developed markets and, if the current economic slowdown persists, could even turn negative after 2009.

Informa does not expect revenue growth from mobile phone sales to exceed 2 percent CAGR in Western Europe, 1 percent in North America, and less than 0.5 percent in Japan between 2010 and 2013.

In these regions, the smartphone market will represent the major growth area. Revenues from this type of phone will represent more than 55 percent of total handset market value in North America, Western Europe, and Japan. However, this growth will only help offset the sharp decline of non-smartphone market value.

Handset market volume sales in these regions are reaching saturation, leading to increasing competition between handset OEMs. The price war will only intensify at a time when new entrants such as Apple and Google are increasing their pressure on competitors to reduce their prices mainly for feature phones and smartphones.

"With the ongoing fall of feature phone and smartphone ASPs, several leading handset vendors are now looking for new ways of controlling handset manufacturing costs in order to maintain margins," said Malik Saadi, Principal Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.

With this in mind, vendors have already shifted the majority of production plants into low labor cost regions such as China, Taiwan, India, Vietnam and Eastern Europe and now they have to play the only remaining card: lowering the bill they pay for chipsets and terminal software.

Device vendors have traditionally relied on customized chipsets for powering their products. Now that modem chips are becoming a commodity, and vendors are adopting off-the-shelf solutions, price competition is expected to increase significantly, requiring suppliers to generate significant economies of scale.

The mobile handsets industry is also turning its interest to open-source, a community based approach, which promises vendors a reduction in or the elimination of royalties related to terminal software and will also help them lower the cost of maintaining commodity software because, under open source rules, this cost is shared among all members of the community rather than being borne by a single vendor.

The value of the global smartphone market will grow from almost $39 billion in 2007 to more than $95 billion, 47 percent of the total handset market value in 2013.

The tremendous growth of mobile broadband usage, with annual growth rates of 200 percent in some parts of North America and upwards of 800 percent in parts of Europe, could create future challenges for mobile service providers.

However, a new market study from Parks Associates found that many carriers rely on outdated business models, excessive pricing or flat-rate billing strategies, to manage traffic or otherwise attempt to reduce user demand.

Excessive pricing slows growth and invites cutthroat competition. Flat-rate carriers charge a single rate for unlimited service, which does not effectively monetize traffic. Both models are unsustainable, given current growth trends.

"Carriers need to create business models with more refined network controls in order to facilitate market growth while maintaining profitability," said Anton Denissov, research analyst, Parks Associates.

These models must be easy for consumers to understand and also address specific needs, so subscribers can pick a plan based on whether they want to send e-mails or stream HD content.

The custom study, conducted by Parks Associates on behalf of Camiant, a global provider of policy control for the wireless, fixed, and cable industries, included interviews with executives at major mobile broadband providers in Canada, Europe, and the U.S. market.

The study determined the adoption and usage of mobile broadband and each carrier's capabilities with respect to network and user control.

According to ABI Research, mobile location-based social networking is expected to become a driver for the adoption of location-based services -- as it provides a unifying framework for a large set of applications such as friend finders, local search and geo-tagging.

While many LBS applications will include features allowing the sharing of real-time experiences via fixed social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace, fully-fledged mobile location-based social networking sites will also gain momentum with more than 82 million subscriptions expected by 2013.

"While growth will be mainly driven by the availability of multimedia-centric GPS handsets, other mobile form factors will also become important," says ABI Research director Dominique Bonte.

Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs) with built-in GPS receivers have been announced, with location-based social networking site GyPSii supporting Moblin-based Intel Atom processor-powered MIDs.

Connected PNDs and outdoor GPS solutions are other obvious candidates for location-based networking. Nissan Carwing in-car telematics solution allows the sharing and ranking of fuel consumption in Japan.

Licensing agreements with carriers and handsets manufacturers will be a crucial success factor for location-enabled social sites to reach critical market share.

While initially a wide range of business models will coexist, ultimately advertising-based models will prevail due to the perfect fit with the local search- and content-driven social context.

Another important trend is the emergence of location-enabled instant messaging with applications such as Palringo Local and Nokia Chat enriching mobile communication with location context.

Digital visual interface (DVI) and high-definition multimedia interface (HDMI) are related high-bandwidth, unidirectional, uncompressed digital interface standards.

According the the latest In-Stat market study, 2008 has brought continuation of trends that have developed over the last few years -- the rapid rise of HDMI and the slow decline of DVI.

Over 100 million DVI-enabled devices shipped in 2007, most in the PC space. High-end consumer desktops, aftermarket graphics cards and LCD PC monitors comprise the lion's share of the DVI market. However, both DVI and new entrant DisplayPort are encroaching on DVI's space resulting in long-term decline.

The primary driver of HDMI's success is the Consumer Electronics (CE) segment, where HDMI was instantly successful upon its 2003 launch. In 2007, HDMI ports were found in over 90 percent of the digital televisions (DTV) shipped worldwide, the greatest volume for HDMI in any product.

The rapid escalation of HDMI in all types of DVD players and recorders is directly related to HDMI's success in DTVs. Audio Visual (AV) receivers have rapidly increased adoption of HDMI over the past year, not surprising given that product's central role in the CE cluster.

Even Pay-TV set-top boxes, which are generally slow to adopt new interfaces, are seeing increased penetration of HDMI.

In the near future, the interesting CE products to watch will be portable electronic devices, including camcorders, digital still cameras, and portable media players (PMPs). The interest of those products' vendors is being piqued by the introduction of smaller HDMI connectors, specifically the newly developed Mobile High-Definition Link (MHL).

Despite HDMI's success, consumer recognition of the technology is still relatively low several countries. In-Stat online consumer research done in the U.S., UK, Germany, France, Japan and Korea queried consumers on their familiarity with HDMI technology.

The result, U.S. and UK consumers are the most familiar with HDMI, while Korean consumers are the least familiar. Even in the U.S. and UK though, less than a quarter of respondents were extremely or very familiar with HDMI.

According to an ABI Research market study, shipments of four classes of wireless audio and video connectivity products for the home -- which barely amount to 150 million this year -- are expected to increase to nearly 700 million worldwide by the end of 2013.

The technologies in question are Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, UWB (ultra-wideband) and 60 GHz -- the likely standard-bearer for in-home wireless distribution of uncompressed high-definition video. ABI Research has long maintained that as the wireless home electronics market grows, these technologies will coexist and become closely integrated according to their strengths and specialties.

"Wireless video and audio connectivity within the home is still an early-adopter's market," notes senior analyst Douglas McEuen.

As prevalent as wireless connectivity is in the home, it's still a small proportion compared to the potential overall market, and even smaller when it's a question of in-home media networks. However as these systems begin to appear in consumers homes, word of the benefits will spread, boosting acceptance levels.

While the Bluetooth and Wi-Fi markets are already large and well-established, those for UWB and 60 GHz -- especially the latter -- are in their infancy. However, says McEuen, "Once UWB begins to hit its stride around 2010, it will show the highest year-over-year growth rate of any of the four technologies."

Much of the growth of home connectivity markets will follow a steady progression, but it could be accelerated by the activities of a few companies which, the study says, are pushing the technological envelope.

According to Nielsen Online, all four U.S. television networks enjoyed month-over-month growth in online video viewers in September -- coinciding with the season premieres of many new television shows.

NBC.com had the largest increase in video viewers, growing 312 percent month-over-month, followed by FOX Broadcasting and ABC.com, with 165 percent and 105 percent growth, respectively.

"A combination of series and season premiers, political news and parodies, and coverage of the financial crisis all contributed to increased online video viewing for the television networks in September," said Jon Gibs, vice president, media analytics, Nielsen Online.

Consumers are increasingly relying on the Web to catch up on programs they missed when it aired on broadcast TV, and the networks are beginning to capitalize on this trend.

Moreover, the television network Web properties were not the only ones to see significant growth in online video viewing in September.

The depressing global economic situation may be driving Web visitors online for a little comic relief -- total video streams increased in a variety of entertainment categories last month.

Nielsen Online today also provided overall online video usage and top brands ranked by video streams for September 2008. The overall number of unique viewers increased 6 percent month-over-month, while total streams increased ten percent.

In a recent market study, ABI Research examined the mobile messaging adoption and usage patterns of mobile business customers from four U.S. mobile service operators.

One of the key findings is that mobile instant messaging (IM) adoption is negatively correlated to mobility. According to principal analyst Dan Shey, "The greatest adopters of mobile IM are T-Mobile subscribers whose demographic profile shows a high percentage who only work in an office."

As office work typically requires PC access, mobile IM adoption appears more related to familiarity with IM through the PC rather than mobility itself.

Other data from the survey analysis shows that Verizon customers are the greatest adopters of picture messaging services and use them the most frequently. AT&T customers are the highest adopters of mobile e-mail services. More Sprint customers use mobile e-mail on a daily basis than other carriers.

All the usage and adoption data is combined with pricing analysis to provide a comparison of messaging ARPUs for each mobile operator. The results demonstrate the important demographic factors that drive mobile messaging ARPUs.

Shey comments, "Smartphone penetration is a big factor driving mobile messaging ARPUs. But personal usage of mobile services is also an important factor. AT&T appears to have successfully combined these two drivers, showing the greatest overall mobile messaging ARPUs in this survey set."

Respondent interest in device features that will improve the mobile messaging user experience demonstrates that all carriers have opportunities to increase messaging adoption and usage, ultimately increasing messaging ARPUs.

These features include QWERTY keyboards, touchscreens, large displays and phones with personal information management functions such as calendars and address books.

According to a market study by Portio Research, mobile data services have become an important tool for generating revenue now that mobile handsets are used not only for voice calls but also for other services -- such as messaging, music, video, etc.

The shift in focus from voice to data services has largely been due to the decreasing growth of voice revenue and the increasing pressure on voice service profit margins. As voice services becomes more of a commodity, mobile operators need to look at other sources to generate new income.

This fact has provided the impetus to formulate and implement strategies to create successful data services that help increase overall data average revenue per user (ARPU).

Their report analyzes the strategies that have been adopted by mobile operators in both advanced and developing countries to make their data services successful and, thereby, drive up data ARPU.

Portio has also covered the strategies adopted by the mobile vendors to push its mobile phone handsets, as they ultimately led to increased data ARPU for operators.

Looking at the growth of non-voice mobile services from 2006 to 2013, Portio anticipates that mobile data revenues, expressed as a percentage of total mobile services revenues, are growing form just 16 percent in 2006 to reach over 25 percent in 2012.

As data service become increasingly important, operators and other players in the value chain must learn best practice operating procedures from the leading service providers.

By and large, the leaders are still in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, with North American carriers on the trailing edge.

Large enterprise employers have highly mobile workforces driven by the global reach of their operations. They often have extensive IT support, which offers globetrotting employees assistance with mobile communication services.

These characteristics bode well for adoption of mobile broadband services. However, a new study from ABI Research -- based on survey analysis of U.S. mobile business customers -- demonstrates that enterprises are not the highest adopters of cellular modems and mobile broadband access.

According to principal analyst Dan Shey, "The survey data demonstrate that mobile broadband reaches across all sizes of company with greater adoption in small and medium businesses. Our research identifies two key drivers: first, all businesses are familiar with data access from a PC, and laptops and mobile broadband simply make this access portable. Second, there is no distribution favoritism towards business customers."

Mobile broadband can be purchased from big box electronics and operator retail stores. Regardless, the U.S. mobile broadband market is nascent, with mostly early adopter users -- this greatly limits market segmentation effects.

The significance of mobile broadband is that it adds complexity to the use and purchase of all mobile services. But even mobile broadband will see complexity through different device purchasing patterns by customer segments, ranging from USB modems through laptops to UMPCs and MIDs, and 3G handsets.

The new ABI market study provides a view of mobile services and device adoption and usage for business customers segmented by four sizes of business. Data include business customer demographics, mobile services adoption and frequency of use, device selection and feature interests, and mobile spending and corporate bill payment.

Their report also includes survey results on user preferences, laptop and mobile phone corporate data access distribution, and device management services.

During the third quarter of 2008, notebook computer shipments into the U.S. market surpassed 50 percent share, topping quarterly desktop PC shipments for the first time in the history of the industry.

The share of notebooks shipped in the U.S. in 3Q08 stood at a solid 55.2 percent, according to preliminary figures from IDC's market study.

The 55 percent ratio was made possible by a record volume of notebooks shipped in 3Q08 -- over 9.5 million units -- representing more than 18 percent growth both year over year and on a sequential basis, according to IDC's preliminary data.

These figures were reached amid a relatively active back-to-school season and the burgeoning financial crisis, which captured headlines but did not immediately affect the PC market's overall performance.

Almost all the leading vendors with desktop and notebook offerings shipped greater notebook volumes in the quarter. Some vendors such as Toshiba have long focused exclusively on notebooks. Others, including Sony, Acer, and Lenovo exceeded the 65 percent notebook ratio within their own PC client shipment base.

Attracted by the opportunities of an expanded multi-PC-per user base, new notebook-focused vendors are making their way into the U.S. market, including Asus and Samsung.

The potentially expanding mid-tier vendor base is likely to further increase competition among well-known brands, with the potential for lower prices to stimulate demand and keep unit growth in positive territory.

"The consumer market continued to be the top driving factor in the notebook offensive but the commercial sector played a critical role too" says David Daoud, research manager, U.S. Quarterly PC Tracker and Personal Systems at IDC.

The consumer market has long favored notebooks, with mobile ratios exceeding the 70 percent mark. So it is clear that the small and mid-markets, as well as the enterprise and public sector buyers, are seeing good value in mobility.

Looking ahead, while mobility will remain a leading growth factor, the economy will be a major wild card in the short to mid term. Prolonged economic tension could have an adverse effect on the PC space leading to reduced growth, but the good news is that virtually every buyer considers PCs as must-have products.

According to the 2008 Cone "Business in Social Media" Study, nearly 60 percent of Americans interact with companies on a social media Web site, and one in four interact more than once per week.

The survey finds that 93 percent of Americans believe a company should have a presence in social media, while 85 percent believe a company should not only be present, but should also interact with its consumers via social media.

Fifty-six percent of American consumers feel both a stronger connection with, and better served by, companies when they can interact with them in a social media environment.

Mike Hollywood, director of new media for Cone, observes that "social media isn't an intrusion into their lives, but rather a welcome channel for discussion."

Highlight from the Cone market study include:

- 43 percent say that companies should use social networks to solve their problems.

- 41 percent want companies to solicit feedback on their products and services.

- 37 percent feel that companies should develop new ways for consumers to interact with their brand.

- 33 percent of men and 17 percent of women interact frequently (one or more times per week) with companies via social media.

"The ease and efficiency of online conversation is likely a draw for men who historically do not seek out the same level of interaction with companies as women," says Hollywood.

Thirty-three percent of younger, hard-to-reach consumers (ages 18-34), believe companies should actively market to them via social networks, and the same is true of the wealthiest households (household income of $75,000+).

Two-thirds of the wealthiest households and the largest households (3 or more members) feel stronger connections to brands they can interact with online.

The results are from an online survey conducted September 11-12, 2008 by Opinion Research Corporation among 1,092 adults.

ComScore released its Q3 2008 retail e-commerce report, which showed that online spending grew 6 percent in Q3 2008 versus the same period last year, a slowdown compared to the year-over-year growth rates of 12 percent in Q1 and 13 percent in Q2 2008.

Total U.S. online retail sales (excluding travel) were approximately $30 billion in the third quarter of 2008.

ComScore surveyed more than 1,000 consumers in October 2008 to gather attitudes on the economy. The study revealed that the majority of consumers are fearful of the future, with 82 percent stating they are more afraid about the economic future than ever before.

Additionally, only a quarter (26 percent) of respondents said they believe the economy will be better a year from now.

Consumer economic pressures continue to have a significant impact on retail spending, which is evident in the slowing growth rates in the online channel. However, in a tight economy, the Internet remains a critical sales and media channel for retailers for three reasons.

First, it is a more cost-effective medium than traditional media. Second, despite the slowdown, e-commerce growth rates still exceed those at retail. And third, online marketing campaigns have been proven to not only grow a retailer's e-commerce sales but to also have the ability to drive increased traffic into retail stores.

And, with so many consumers expected to be especially cost-conscious this holiday season, it is important for retailers to reach them at the initial point of the purchase funnel -- when many product research and price comparisons are being conducted online.

A review of monthly retail e-commerce growth rates helps to further depict the slowdown in the U.S. retail economy. So far this year, retail e-commerce growth rates have fallen from levels of 18 to 20 percent observed during Q4 of 2007 to a growth rate of only 6 percent in Q3 2008.

Since April, comScore says they have recorded five consecutive months of declining growth rates. September's 5 percent growth rate is the lowest recorded by comScore since it began tracking e-commerce sales in 2001.

The North American telco IPTV and cableco switched digital video (SDV) equipment market declined sharply in 2Q08, pulling the worldwide market down 5 percent sequentially to $1.27 billion -- despite healthy increases in other markets, according to Infonetics Research.

The dip in the overall market is due to slowing IPTV and SDV subscriber additions by service providers in some regions hit hard by the uncertain economic climate, particularly in North America, according to the latest Infonetics market study.

In environments where the future of the economy is unknown, IPTV and SDV subscribers are more apt to stay with their current provider, rather than look for a new provider with whom they may have to invest in new equipment and other upfront fees; this is especially true in North America and Western Europe.

However, service providers around the world -- particularly in Asia, Europe, and Latin America -- are still investing in IPTV equipment because offering video service is increasingly becoming a requirement to increase revenue per user.

"Operators will continue to add IPTV and SDV subscribers, just not at the fast clip they previously expected," said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst for IPTV at Infonetics Research.

Highlights from the Infonetics report include:

- North America's share of the overall IPTV and SDV equipment markets dropped from 47 percent to 38 percent between 1Q08 and 2Q08.

- The number of IPTV subscribers is forecast to hit 72 million worldwide by 2011 (their forecast has been adjusted to reflect the global economy outlook).

- In 2Q08, the worldwide IP set-top box market is down 10 percent due to the subscriber slowdown, while the nascent IP video encoder market is up 8 percent as subscribers seek to add channels, particularly high definition (HD) channels.

- IPTV subscriber growth has been strongest in France, where a fierce battle for subscribers among Orange, Free, and neuf-cegetel has driven total subscribers there to nearly 3 million at the end of 2007.

- IPTV activation times for AT&T are ranging from days to weeks, increasing the cost to pass homes and turn-up subscribers, prompting IPTV operators to push harder for well-defined interoperability standards.

- IP STB prices are expected to decrease, thanks to volume production of system-on-a-chip (SoC) designs from STMicroelectronics and Sigma Designs, as well as the entry into the market of Broadcom.

Looking for growth in the U.S. telecom sector? The market for mobile video infrastructure will experience very rapid growth rates in the near future -- in spite of the economy, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

There are many ways to deliver video content to mobile devices -- some of these require mobile video-specific infrastructure, such as broadcast out-of-band video services and cellular in-band video services. Others, like Internet access and digital terrestrial broadcast TV, utilize infrastructure in place for other video services.

"In spite of the present economic turmoil, consumer interest in mobile video is growing, and service providers must build infrastructure to be in position when consumer demand recovers. Europe is the largest region for transmission revenue due to the number of countries that have launched, or plan to launch, mobile-specific out-of-band broadcast networks," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.

"Mobile video headends will drive growth for encoders and transcoders to support an increasing number of video channels and display sizes. When the Mobile Internet hits its stride, we'll see online videos being re-purposed for mobile devices."

In contrast, I'm skeptical about the revenue upside for carriers. I'm wondering if the significant mobile video opportunity is ultimately destined to be over-the-top delivery that doesn't include a revenue split with mobile service providers.

Does Hulu.com, as an example, really need a mobile carrier relationship in order to succeed with mobile phone consumers? I think not. Unless of course, the carriers attempt to block video content that resides outside their walled gardens. Barring that anomaly, over the top delivery will thrive in the U.S. market.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- The U.S. is expected to remain on track to begin deployments of ATSC Mobile and Handheld (ATSC M&H) services during 2009, into 2010, and beyond.

- In Brazil, deployments of ISDB-T will begin, and ISDB-T supports a built-in mobile service called One Segment (One Seg).

- DVB-H deployments will continue globally, country by country.

- MediaFLO build out will be limited mostly to U.S. markets.

- Mobile video infrastructure revenues will reach $291 million in 2012.

- Transmission network build outs generate more revenues than mobile video head-ends.

Demand for managed network service (MNS) providers is growing fast as enterprises of all sizes grapple with increasing network traffic and complexity. At the same time, enterprises are seeing their services budgets shrink.

This has created an intensely competitive landscape among global MNS providers, and even the industry's bellwether providers face new and significant competitive threats.

In a new report, independent market analyst firm Datamonitor ranks 13 of the world's leading MNS providers based on their network services, end-user sentiment and market impact.

The global MNS market is extremely competitive, particularly among the large telecommunications providers and conglomerate systems integrators that dominate it -- AT&T, BT Global Services, HP Services and IBM Global Technology Services.

Yet new threats are emerging in the form of smaller, more agile rivals, such as CSC, Orange Business Services, Verizon Business and Vanco, despite the latter's recent financial troubles.

These smaller providers are forging key partnerships to expand their MNS portfolios while at the same time keeping focused on overall customer experience. This is putting new competitive pressure on the industry's market leaders.

There is a chase to the mid-market among most of the world's top MNS providers, which consider the small to mid-sized enterprise market as the next frontier for new customers and revenues.

And, while the vast majority of MNS revenue is driven by large enterprise customers, small to mid-sized enterprises are increasingly seeking out MNS as their networks also become more complex and difficult to manage.

However, Datamonitor research shows that mid-market user sentiment varies to that of large enterprises and that most MNS providers are missing the mark when it comes to the mid-market.

There has also been a flurry of consolidation in the market, including among the top big-four as well as among smaller yet highly competitive rivals. In some cases, smaller players, such as THUS and Vanco, have acquired newfound market impact, which may in time catapult them to the next competitive level.

The Datamonitor report findings show that the most successful MNS providers have a winning combination of broad portfolio capacity, solid financial stability, excellent quality of services, customer relationship management and global reach.

It also predicts that while managed network services will continue to align with business objectives, providers must adopt a more focused go-to-market approach and improve their execution capabilities for future success.

When service revenues dip due to reduced end-user confidence, a standard tactic is to cut back on capital expenditure, which boosts operating margins and thereby profits. This tactic was used in the dot.com bust and the 3G network anticlimax earlier in this decade.

Adjusting, sometimes even drastically, capital expenditure plans can demonstrate to investors appropriate financial housekeeping practices. Network operators can also resort to a number of alternative strategies to make their capex dollars go further.

"Subscriber growth may be flattening and carriers are facing tougher credit conditions from financial institutions, but the need to upgrade infrastructure and install new equipment will not go away," comments ABI Research vice president Jake Saunders.

Competitive pressures are putting the thumbscrews on carriers to introduce innovative applications and services such as music downloading, mobile TV, and social networking.

Furthermore the amount of traffic generated from voice, messaging, emails, games, content downloads, mobile Internet access, video streaming and other services is growing dramatically.

The introduction of the Apple iPhone 3G and other devices such as Samsung's Omnia and RIM's Bold have transformed the end user's mobile Internet browsing experience -- they have also resulted in a substantial delta to the average amount of data downloaded per user.

In 2007, global capital expenditure by carriers stood at $131 billion. Despite the worsening credit crisis, 2008 will still notch up capital expenditure of $142 billion, or 8.3 percent year-over-year.

ABI Research forecasts that 2009 is likely to show a reduced capex growth rate of 7 percent. Still a good showing, considering the state of the global network economy.

Base stations still account for the lion's share of capex spending (49.5 percent), driven by coverage and infill base-station build-out, followed by backhaul (19.2 percent) and the core network (15.7 percent), including Mobile Switching Centers, Media Gateways, etc.

As blogging, and the ability to comment online, are in essence popularizing and decentralizing the traditional news industry, so too are virtual worlds changing the gaming, meeting, and 3D graphic design industries, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

Virtual worlds -- especially the 3D kinds -- are classified under the Web 3.0 category because of their profound ability to integrate multiple types of content, information sources, and feeds into one highly engaging and interactive format.

Virtual worlds are online, computer-generated simulations of life-like or fantasy environments where users guide their avatar, or digital representation of their physical selves, to accomplish various goals.

"Evidence supports the conclusion that the application that is critical to virtual worlds -- and, by extension, to Web 3.0 -- is, in fact, already here and it is none other than social networking," says Vahid Dejwakh, In-Stat analyst.

The In-Stat research covers the worldwide market for virtual worlds. It provides analysis of this new form of gaming and social networking including profiles of 17 virtual worlds. It includes forecasts of worldwide registered users and revenue for virtual worlds through 2012. User demographics and market shares of virtual worlds are also provided.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- Total registered users of virtual worlds are expected to exceed 1 billion and total revenue is expected to exceed $3 billion by 2012.

- 70 percent of the more than 300 million registered users of virtual worlds are younger than 18.

- Virtual world companies earn close to 90 percent of their revenue from the sale of virtual items, currency, land, and fees associated with these items.

A new market study by Futuresource looked at the impacts of recession on the consumer electronics industry and delves into the core drivers behind continued consumer uptake, providing forecasts across the key industry segments.

Rather than going on vacation or dining out by candlelight, consumers see the purchase of hot new electronics items like Blu-ray players, flat panel TVs or smart phones as a far better value-for-money option.

The tangible benefits of these products can be enjoyed for a long time to come and are seen by many as essential items once consumers begin the retreat into their living rooms.

Futuresource research from the economic slump of 2001 reveals digital cameras and DVD players continued to grow sharply when the economy stagnated, giving a clear indication that home entertainment can ride the storm.

Stretching the timeline backwards further, during the economic downturn of the early 1980s, sales of VCRs in the UK rocketed, growing by 440 percent between 1980 and 1983.

New figures released by Futuresource show the markets for flat panel HDTVs and Blu-ray disc players will continue to expand in Europe and the U.S. this year, with the majority of consumers continuing to migrate up to more expensive products.

The U.S. flat panel market is on track to reach nearly 30 million shipments this year, with LCD screens experiencing a healthy 40 percent growth on 2007. However, although they're still seeking that HD fix, many consumers are shopping for smaller screen sizes, between 32 and 42 inches.

Subsequently, it's likely to be slower growth within the U.S. for the giant screen size segment (50 inch or more) of the market. By 2010, overall shipments will have grown to 36 million units.

In Western Europe the TV market is also holding up well, with overall volume growth of 6 percent predicted by Futuresource for this year. In addition, significant price reductions of up to 25 percent in the larger screen (42 inch+) categories are fueling interest amongst first time buyers.

Flat panel growth is expected to continue into 2009 and beyond, with panel suppliers expanding production and opening next generation plants, which will ultimately help to drive average prices down further and boost demand.

The pattern of growth is similar for the Blu-ray disc player market, with projections showing player shipments to Europe's top 5 markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) more than tripling between 2008 and 2009, to reach in excess of 1.8 million units shipped in 2009, excluding PS3.

High speed packet access (HSPA) will be a key driver behind future wireless femtocell adoption, according to the latest market study by Infonetics Research.

Once users adopt high speed mobile data services, their report contends, subscribing to a femtocell service could follow to ensure coverage and capacity consistency for services delivered to the home or office.

"When HSPA becomes more widely available, mobile broadband adoption will get an extra push. Femtocells, in turn, should see an uptick in adoption, as they provide consistent indoor wireless coverage and give mobile operators a stronger positioning in the home broadband network," said Richard Webb, directing analyst at Infonetics Research.

Once launched, femtocells offered with home-zone tariffs could be seen as a recession-buster deal for consumers seeking to reduce mobile voice call charges, and the early market could see decent growth, despite the prevailing economic climate.

Highlights from the Infonetics study include:

- Despite being a commercially available technology with numerous products on the market, mobile operators continue to adopt a cautious approach to femtocells due to the technology and business model challenges yet to be overcome.

- Major strides have been made in 2008 for a femtocell standard, with the industry achieving consensus -- driven by the Femto Forum -- regarding the Iu-h interface between the femtocell and the femtocell gateway/mobile core network.

- 2009 is expected to be the first year of significant traction for the femtocell and femtocell gateway markets.

- UMA, once thought to be competitive with femtocells, is likely to be a driver for femtocell adoption, with mobile operators expected to offer dual mode FMC services with cheap or free voice calls and enhanced 3G coverage via UMA-based femtocells.

By the end of September 2010, there will be five hundred million mobile subscriptions in India, according to the latest market study by Informa Telecoms & Media.

The speed of growth has been remarkable. While it took 13 years for India to gain its first 250 million mobile subscriptions, forecasts from Informa indicate that the country's second 250 million subscribers will be added over a 30-month period.

The engine for this rapid growth has been the increased competition in India's mobile market, which has been driven by tremendous consumer demand, and has resulted in heavy investment from the country's largest operators.

"The bottom line is with a penetration rate of 26 percent, India is a hugely attractive investment destination, and will continue to be so for many years. Indeed, our forecasts suggest that the active subscription rate will remain well below 50 percent until 2010," says Informa Principal Analyst, Nick Jotischky.

Not only is India now the world's second largest mobile market worldwide, but it is also the second fastest growth market after China. During the first six months of 2008, there were over 50 million net additions to India's mobile market -- behind China on 53.6 million additions.

Compare this with saturated markets such as UK and France, where the number of net additions was 410,000 and 535,000 respectively.

Growth in India's mobile market is being driven by more than just heavy investment. As Jotischky explains "India has the world's lowest tariffs and supplies some of the cheapest handsets, both factors that have helped to drive consumer demand. Increased network coverage as operators expand their population coverage to rural parts of India has also played its part."

Informa forecasts also suggest that India will soon enter a second phase of growth.

The Indian regulator is set to award 3G licenses to India's largest operators in 2009 and Informa forecasts suggest a rapid take-up on the back of growing demand for data services. At the end of the decade, Informa predicts there will be 7.5 million W-CDMA connections by the end of 2010, a figure that will leap to over 120 million by the end of 2013.

The award of 3G licences will be important to India's leading operators as this will allow them to differentiate their service offerings from those of their competitors as well as provide them with much-needed additional spectrum.